Next Cyclone - Yes / No
Submitted by Chikwama on Thu, 2011-02-24 12:24
Anyone keen to make a prediction on whether the next low is going to develop into cyclonic proportions ?
Heading off middle of next week up to Exmouth & the troops are keen to know if we take fishing rods or drinking shoes...
tailor marc
Posts: 2979
Date Joined: 27/09/06
yes....http://www.bom.gov.au/
yes....
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml
My photography pictures... http://westernhorizonsmedia.wordpress.com/
crasny1
Posts: 7028
Date Joined: 16/10/08
Water temps still up
Dropped slightly with carlos. Im in 2 minds, but probably leaning to not forming. However butt covering here and some models do show a possible formation, others dont.
I would take both, no fishing trip is complete without a beer, and no beer IMO taste better than during a fishing trip.
Neels
"I would like to die on Mars. Just not on impact!!" _ Elon Musk
Bodie
Posts: 3758
Date Joined: 05/11/07
pressure is dropping
pressure is dropping dramatically on that low pressure cell, once it gets into open ocean its got every chance of forming, I'd say 50%
Adam Gallash
Posts: 15665
Date Joined: 29/11/05
yep
Going with yep if it stays over water, but it won't be much, just more rain. Looks like its being sucked over land during the weekend so may not eventuate. The 50/50 is not a bad guess, lol.
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Muppet
Posts: 408
Date Joined: 23/11/09
Looks like mirror image of dirty sanchez carlos
I say yes.
check this water temp chart out.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-precip&tz=AWST&area=Au&model=CG
wish we would get a chance for the water to clean up. boat hasn't been wet for months
.
Tony Halliday
Posts: 2500
Date Joined: 14/06/07
I say yes, mild cat 1~max 2
I say yes, mild cat 1~max 2 will go out to sea and around Port Headland then curve in for Exmouth again...sorry boys I said so last time...
What concerns me more is a build up of heat again in the Gulf north of Queensland and NT areas, thats where the monsters lurk and are born!
TC Carlos was a texbook case, followed all the pointers and followed the hot water all the way down south again off Exxy.
With still another 6 to 8 weeks of cyclone window left this could be a cruel cruel summer ..( key the Bangles...
)
Tony Halliday: ~Meals on Reels ~
It takes a strong fish to swim against the current. Even a dead one can float with it
"It is always in season for old men to learn." Aeschylus (525-456 BC)
"In a mad world only the mad are sane." Akira Kurosawa (1910-1998)
Chikwama
Posts: 8
Date Joined: 10/08/10
Edgy Troops
Thanks guys for the update / get feel / prediction re this potential TC - will pass on to the team assembling for the trip to Exxie next week - hopefully by early next week we will know how much fishing / drinking we need to prepare for.
Adam i assume that any scuba diving on the naval pier is likely to be a non event next week....what about diving around the Muirons / Peak ?
At least i get another shot at Exxie later on in the year (Sept).....
Tony Halliday
Posts: 2500
Date Joined: 14/06/07
www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc
www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi
that dark brown hot water is not a good sign still behind Carlos. It means more food for the new monster to feed on....
and
http://wxmaps.org/pix/aus.pw.html
this ones showing loads of energy for the next few days from Broome to Port Headland. In this model the pink circles are the potential TC zones and shows it coming in earlier than I said before, more like between Karratha and Port Headland, but lots can change in 5 days!!!
http://wxmaps.org/pix/aus.slp.html
Tony Halliday: ~Meals on Reels ~
It takes a strong fish to swim against the current. Even a dead one can float with it
"It is always in season for old men to learn." Aeschylus (525-456 BC)
"In a mad world only the mad are sane." Akira Kurosawa (1910-1998)
carnarvonite
Posts: 8706
Date Joined: 24/07/07
Bom
Had a chat with the Bom boss here in town on Tuesday evening, he said they were keeping a very close eye on the depression and were hesitant to predict just yet because all their modelling came up different results. Some said yes another like Carlos and a run down the coast while other said a bigger nastier one that could run inland a drop big buckets of rain on the Gascoyne catchment again..
So with all that in mind have decided not to move back in to the park untill its all over.
Tony Halliday
Posts: 2500
Date Joined: 14/06/07
funny you say that mate,with
funny you say that mate,
with Bom predictions and two other sites all show different routes for the new one.
the links I have put up earlier show it swinging out and coming in around Port Headland, Bom 4 day forcast shows more TC Carlos like track, then the French site ( mostly used for pacific) but shows a tropical low staying more over land in the Kimberlies then going to sea a little south of Broome.
So WTF is the weather playing silly buggers with us now!!!! As I said earlier a dam lot of hot scary wet air in the Gulf of Carpentaria and Coral Sea, a real hot band of water now reaching from Queensland all the way across north Aussie land can only spell doom, with loads of moisture as well hanging over the central NSW / Queenland area that can feed across in the jetstream the needed boost for super hail storm formation and tornado's. Not being a scare monger, but a lot of that upper air formation is more like the yank tornado alley from Dixie land to the Midwest!
Tony Halliday: ~Meals on Reels ~
It takes a strong fish to swim against the current. Even a dead one can float with it
"It is always in season for old men to learn." Aeschylus (525-456 BC)
"In a mad world only the mad are sane." Akira Kurosawa (1910-1998)
Chikwama
Posts: 8
Date Joined: 10/08/10
Roads Still Open
Carnarvonite are the roads from Carnarvon to Exmouth still open at this stage ? Sure is crazy weather at present. Just spoke to a mate who was fishing perth metro today & they had multiple hookups on mackies - ironic when you consider this same mate was up in Coral Bay (a very quick visit it was) over the weekend & then hightailed it out of there before Carlos landed...today catching fish he was supposedly up north targeting !!!
carnarvonite
Posts: 8706
Date Joined: 24/07/07
NW coastal hwy
Pretty sure that the NW coastal hwy is open be cause we have had bugger all rain to speak about in the last few days but cannot be sure about the Minillya -Exmouth raod being open. Would expect it to be closed at the Lindon river crossing but don't know for how long.
Adam Gallash
Posts: 15665
Date Joined: 29/11/05
Diving
Diving in the gulf/navy pier and anywhere near it is out for quite a while! Brown soup, wouldn't even see your hand in front of your face.
Site Admin - Just ask if you need assistance
Muppet
Posts: 408
Date Joined: 23/11/09
No good for a dive
Chikwama, the water is coloured like coffee at the moment, seaweed eveywhere. It didn't have chance to clean up from the last cyclone that came down this way and now with Carlos, its probably gonna be dirty for a while. The navy pier would be out for a while i expect.
The Murions would still be dirty, but should clean up alot quicker.
Best to check the main roads site for the road updates. Exmouth - Minilya road was closed this morning, don't know if its open now ?
cheers
.
jay_burgess
Posts: 4648
Date Joined: 18/08/05
I wouldn't even bother going
I wouldn't even bother going up there... even if this cyclone doesn't eventuate the fishing is still going to be farrrked.
Tony Halliday
Posts: 2500
Date Joined: 14/06/07
you just trying to keep us
you just trying to keep us city folk away from your barra boy!!!
lol
Tony Halliday: ~Meals on Reels ~
It takes a strong fish to swim against the current. Even a dead one can float with it
"It is always in season for old men to learn." Aeschylus (525-456 BC)
"In a mad world only the mad are sane." Akira Kurosawa (1910-1998)
Tony Halliday
Posts: 2500
Date Joined: 14/06/07
one other thing I have picked
one other thing I have picked up of late is we having unusually high Madden Julian Oscillation in the Indian Ocean,
This is a pulsing weather effect in the higher atmosphere and normally is linked to increased tropical storm activity and even cyclones. This effect normally cycles from a few years high and a few low, but we had a few too many high cycles of late, that coupled with a high ENSO (El Nino-Southern oscillation) at the same time means you in deep trouble. This condition is normally seen only in the upper Pacific ocean and leads to very heavy flooding in the USA when troughs of air draw huge amounts of warm wet air over Hawaii across to the upper regions of the USA.
BUT we now seeing this type of cycle happing our side of the ocean as well, NOT GOOD!!! We traditionally get one and then the other 12 ~16 months later, so we cycle from MJO to ENSO, well not of late…
Read: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropnote/tropnote.shtml
Quote:
Weekly Tropical Climate NoteIssued on Tuesday 22 February 2011
La Niña event now passed its peakThe La Niña event which has dominated the Australian climate for the past nine months is showing signs of weakening. Pacific Ocean temperatures, most notably below the surface, have warmed, while atmospheric indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds and cloud patterns have eased from their respective peaks in early January. The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to February the 19th was +20. Contributing pressure anomalies were -0.8 hPa at Darwin and +3.5 hPa at Tahiti. The monthly SOI for January was +20. The 5-month running mean (centred on November) was +21.
The average September to January SOI has only been exceeded by the La Niña of 1917-18 (+24.4), with the 1975-76 La Niña (+18.8) ranked third. Several other indices also suggest the La Niña events of 2010-11, 1975-76, 1917-18, 1955-56 and possibly 1988-89, rank closely in terms of the strongest events on record.
During La Niña events, tropical cyclone numbers are typically higher than normal during the November to April period. Wet season temperatures are often below average during this period, particularly in areas experiencing excess rainfall.
See the Bureau's ENSO Wrap-Up which includes a compilation of ENSO computer model predictions.
The monsoon trough returns to the Top EndThe weak remnants of a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signature have continued to linger over the eastern Indian Ocean during the past week. Even though the degree of uncertainty remains high, the majority of computer models surveyed by the Bureau still suggest an MJO pulse may return to the Indian Ocean during the next week or two. However, it is expected to remain weak at this stage.
Over the past week, convection over northern Australia (with the exception of eastern Queensland) was well above average due to an active monsoon trough in the region and the formation of a tropical low which later became Tropical Cyclone Carlos. Enhanced convection was observed over the Timor Sea, the Suva Sea and the North West Shelf. This was largely due to the proximity of the monsoon trough and a good low-level surge of wind from northern China.
Although the MJO is expected to remain weak, rainfall across northern Australia is likely to increase as the monsoon trough re-intensifies over the Top End of Australia later in the week. Tropical cyclone activity is expected to remain average to above-average across northern Australia, mostly due to the current position of the monsoon trough and the influence of the ongoing La Niña.
See the Bureau's new MJO Monitoring for more information, including rainfall maps.
Next update expected by 1 March 2011 | Product Code IDCKGEWOOO
For more information please contact climate.tropical@bom.gov.au
Funny how that slipped under the radar in their weather prediction updates…. This is a major alarm bell in climate circles!
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/cdo/education/enso/soi.gif
this graph shows how the tradional patern got into a long stall around 1998~2000, then there after lost it's rythm, BUT some say we may again be going back into along LaNina period and as I was not here, I don't know how bad the weather was in those 1998~1999 periods..... we may just see the same effects again, but worse due to the MJO and Monnson trough all lining up nicely in the north
Tony Halliday: ~Meals on Reels ~
It takes a strong fish to swim against the current. Even a dead one can float with it
"It is always in season for old men to learn." Aeschylus (525-456 BC)
"In a mad world only the mad are sane." Akira Kurosawa (1910-1998)
petervb
Posts: 447
Date Joined: 18/12/09
so is the water looking like
so is the water looking like puss on the western (ningaloo) side or is it just the gulf
carnarvonite
Posts: 8706
Date Joined: 24/07/07
Exmouth
Not sure on how Exmouth water looks, down here in Carnarvon its a lovely reddish brown colour that according to my son stretches out 19nm. Looked weird yesterday when I could see people surfing off Pelican point in red water.
Lucky Tim
Posts: 2536
Date Joined: 28/11/07
pretty average over on the
pretty average over on the west side but still spearable at a pinch. The gulf is so bad I'd feel bad even launching my boat in it.
Bodie
Posts: 3758
Date Joined: 05/11/07
take a look at the loop radar
take a look at the loop radar 256km over Darwin!!! look at the cloud and rain movement closely!!! the it almost looks like a circling cyclone just not dense!
Rain to the south is moving west, rain to the north moving east!
Its like its circulating air and moisture off the ocean once it reaches land.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR632.loop.shtml#skip
Tony Halliday
Posts: 2500
Date Joined: 14/06/07
yes that restless low going
yes that restless low going around a nice warm puddle off the coast!
http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDY00030.201102240600.png
latest weather map shows a nice 999 millbar low right over them, this is the one worring me now.
Tony Halliday: ~Meals on Reels ~
It takes a strong fish to swim against the current. Even a dead one can float with it
"It is always in season for old men to learn." Aeschylus (525-456 BC)
"In a mad world only the mad are sane." Akira Kurosawa (1910-1998)
Aussie Boofhead
Posts: 88
Date Joined: 23/03/09
i went fishing down the Port
i went fishing down the Port Hedland Jetty last night for mulloway, water was poo brown.. not even a shark around last night
Yewiefish85
Posts: 809
Date Joined: 02/01/11
mate, your keen!!!!!,
mate, your keen!!!!!, provided we dont get another cyclone i personally would give it a couple of weeks before trying the jetty for kingies (or anything for that matter), might try for a barra at 6 mile on sat, if you interested PM me
Aussie Boofhead
Posts: 88
Date Joined: 23/03/09
as for the next low, i say
as for the next low, i say Yes to cyclone, Tropical Cyclone Errol will be its name.. and im going for a Port Hedland crossing as a cat 2
dodgy
Posts: 4588
Date Joined: 01/02/10
Gonna keep the shelves
Gonna keep the shelves stocked this time?
Does anyone know where the love of god goes, when the waves turn the minutes to hours?
Tony Halliday
Posts: 2500
Date Joined: 14/06/07
stuff the shelves, make sure
stuff the shelves, make sure the fridge has beer first!
Yep Errol, Ewan, Edward or what ever they decide will move in around Prot Headland to Karratha as a Cat 2 ~3 storm.
it's already a 996 mb low in the hot water west of Darwin and withe the upper air trough now stretching from Carlos all the way back to this low, the fuel and vooma is all there for breeding another monster.
Even though water about 400km north of Exmouth to Broome has cooled back to it's normal range, it's still hot enough for cyclones and we still have a 3~3 deg anomalie off Shark Bay to Coral Bay thats going feed us some good fish, but will be a magnet for any whirlies that come down that way.
I recon this one will be the last for two to three weeks, then we in for another 2 late in
March with a tail ender in April for this season.
I think the East coast may cop another one in late March, but most from now on will form off Fiji area and move South East over the northern ocean region of Kiwi land as the "Walking cycle" of thermal up flow has started again. ie the clouds drawing up the hot moist air are moving back to central Pacfic in line with normal El Nino prediction.
I don't how ever think the Lan Nina is over, it's just lulled for now and will increase again next season for another two years before we going to see a El Nino stretch,
I base this on we now back into a very active sun spot and solar flare period, with a maximum sun activity coming in 2012 to 2015. That will disrupt many traditional weather patterns and complicate the bloody issue even more.
Oh well never a boring day here in paradise.
Tony Halliday: ~Meals on Reels ~
It takes a strong fish to swim against the current. Even a dead one can float with it
"It is always in season for old men to learn." Aeschylus (525-456 BC)
"In a mad world only the mad are sane." Akira Kurosawa (1910-1998)
Aussie Boofhead
Posts: 88
Date Joined: 23/03/09
lol, my shelves at the servo
lol, my shelves at the servo were pretty good, apart from the Milk Supply
crasny1
Posts: 7028
Date Joined: 16/10/08
I thought we had an Errol before
Wasnt retired obviously!
Neels
"I would like to die on Mars. Just not on impact!!" _ Elon Musk
Bodie
Posts: 3758
Date Joined: 05/11/07
woodside sites in K-town
woodside sites in K-town predicting one early next week now!
And US navy site has picked up the storm too
Bodie
Posts: 3758
Date Joined: 05/11/07
also weatherzone is
also weatherzone is predicting the pressure to be 992-991 tuesday / wednesday next week somewhere between Karratha and exmouth!
pressure that low, I'd say the likely hood of a cyclone has increased 60-70% chance now :)
weatherzone saying it will stay over land, i cant see how thats the case, the warm water tempretures will draw it out.
And some more heavy rain too!
crasny1
Posts: 7028
Date Joined: 16/10/08
Thought so
We have had 2 errols before, but no impact so the name can be used again. 2002 and 1991.
Neels
"I would like to die on Mars. Just not on impact!!" _ Elon Musk
Tony Halliday
Posts: 2500
Date Joined: 14/06/07
So Neels we waiting for your
So Neels we waiting for your call on the low hanging around Darwin, my cards are down and bets on...
Tony Halliday: ~Meals on Reels ~
It takes a strong fish to swim against the current. Even a dead one can float with it
"It is always in season for old men to learn." Aeschylus (525-456 BC)
"In a mad world only the mad are sane." Akira Kurosawa (1910-1998)
crasny1
Posts: 7028
Date Joined: 16/10/08
Now I bet 100% Cyclone!!!!!!!
LOL. I have been sitting on the fence. Saw Bodies post and he was to quick. LMAO.
Now where is it going to go!!
I have a feeling though between Heddies and Kcity.
Neels
"I would like to die on Mars. Just not on impact!!" _ Elon Musk
Bodie
Posts: 3758
Date Joined: 05/11/07
i think almost same track as
i think almost same track as dirty carlos! cat 2-3 again
Bodie
Posts: 3758
Date Joined: 05/11/07
Its confirmed!!! Monday
Its confirmed on BOM!!! Monday morning 10am!
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml
Fishwrecked cyclone trackers at work again!
Not sure on strength yet, but current track shows cleaning up K-town again!
Tony Halliday
Posts: 2500
Date Joined: 14/06/07
ha ha ha we called it days
ha ha ha we called it days ago, BOM just to concervative to say when the sky is blue...lol
and where did I say it will go.... Port Headland to Karratha on the one plot and the other shows it going out further north then making a bee line for Exmouth...
I'm hedging my bets till I see the latest JMO data and ENSO update tomorrow.
oh it will be at least a Cat 2 maybe a weak 3 with that warm water under it's belly most of the way.
Tony Halliday: ~Meals on Reels ~
It takes a strong fish to swim against the current. Even a dead one can float with it
"It is always in season for old men to learn." Aeschylus (525-456 BC)
"In a mad world only the mad are sane." Akira Kurosawa (1910-1998)
Bodie
Posts: 3758
Date Joined: 05/11/07
oh and check out the gulf ofr
oh and check out the gulf ofr carpentaria mid next week :)
Nice warm water, and a pressure system starting to evolve! It's moving on land, but my guess it wont stay there for long.
tailor marc
Posts: 2979
Date Joined: 27/09/06
What things have to come
What things have to come together to get to cat 5 or big cyclones?
My photography pictures... http://westernhorizonsmedia.wordpress.com/
Bodie
Posts: 3758
Date Joined: 05/11/07
more ocean time, larger
more ocean time, larger boides of water to gather greater energy.
When coming down the coast it struggles to expand because not the whole storm is on water.
Cat 5's generally gather momentom out to sea, then as they get closer intensify, but break down very quickly on land.
Tony Halliday
Posts: 2500
Date Joined: 14/06/07
slow forward speed under
slow forward speed under 10km/hr. strong rotation speed and good Coriolanus forces in action, a good sea base temp around 30~32 deg is perfect with a slight current only.
Strong upper air trough formation bring in moisture as well and carrying away cold damp air and add in a nice jet stream to kick start the boil.
The present wet season monsoon in the NT is longer and larger than normal, so the feed stock of water vapor is there and the warm temps off the north are strong as well,
Biggest factor to boost any whirly up from a Cat 3 to 4 or 5 is when it gets a long clean slow run over water, like the one on the east coast did, that's why the ones from Fiji are deadly.
Look at how TC Carlos blew across land for nearly a 1000km on and off, and as soon as it hit open warm water off the back of Coral bay went back up to Cat 3 in two days....
That low in the Gulf of Carpentaria is the bigger threat now. as that could go far enough north to avoid the land falls of the Darwin coast and Kimberly’s to curve all the way around and be a strong wide and solid Cat4 entering into the seas above the Broome to Port Headland zones....
If we get a strong ENSO pulse in the next week, then we in for a bad bad time end of March, as this will kick start the Coriolanus effect moving south again in the storm cells.
hurricanes, cyclones, typhoons all the same,
so here is nice little FAQ site for you:
http://www.drgeorgepc.com/HurricaneFAQ.html
and'
http://www.lifeslittlemysteries.com/typhoon-megi-philippines-category-5-101018-1119/
Tony Halliday: ~Meals on Reels ~
It takes a strong fish to swim against the current. Even a dead one can float with it
"It is always in season for old men to learn." Aeschylus (525-456 BC)
"In a mad world only the mad are sane." Akira Kurosawa (1910-1998)
tailor marc
Posts: 2979
Date Joined: 27/09/06
Wonder what the record
Wonder what the record amount of cyclones to hit WA in a year was? Bet this year may win
My photography pictures... http://westernhorizonsmedia.wordpress.com/
Tony Halliday
Posts: 2500
Date Joined: 14/06/07
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/climatology/trends.shtml
some info on cyclone trends mate
1984 with 20 for all Ozz land holds the record in last 40 years.
No records on BOM for before 1970, but some say the early periods of 1910 to 1920 was horrific in hits.
http://www.csiro.au/org/Tropical-Cyclones.html
CSIRO says we average 13 a year and more than half will hit WA.
Tony Halliday: ~Meals on Reels ~
It takes a strong fish to swim against the current. Even a dead one can float with it
"It is always in season for old men to learn." Aeschylus (525-456 BC)
"In a mad world only the mad are sane." Akira Kurosawa (1910-1998)
Tony Halliday
Posts: 2500
Date Joined: 14/06/07
thr trend since the mid
thr trend since the mid 1980's has been a reduction in the number of weaker cyclones, but basicly the same number of strong ones coming through.
That is until now, we may just be seeing the start of an upwards swing back to the high numbers of the mid 80's
http://www.bom.gov.au/info/100_years.pdf
this is nice bit of history on 100 years of Australian wind, weather etc...
Tony Halliday: ~Meals on Reels ~
It takes a strong fish to swim against the current. Even a dead one can float with it
"It is always in season for old men to learn." Aeschylus (525-456 BC)
"In a mad world only the mad are sane." Akira Kurosawa (1910-1998)
Bodie
Posts: 3758
Date Joined: 05/11/07
agree with Tony, the low in
agree with Tony, the low in the gulf shows signs of being another cracker storm.
Another thing to look at is the low in the middle of Aus.
How much will the red centre get!!
Tony Halliday
Posts: 2500
Date Joined: 14/06/07
you know it's not good for
you know it's not good for your karma to agree to much with me...lol, the fun police will hunt you down and flog you...lol
Back to the whirly, if it comes in around Port Headland, I expect it to push rain all the way into Kal and on south, but if it takes track number 2 and makes an Exxy entrance, it will more likely hug the coast and drift off to the west into the sea.
What may feed stormy rain conditions and possible floods again to Katherine and other central NT areas is the monsoon trough hanging around the west to east line being pushed anti clokcwise and feeding from the south west. This is close to what happend that last time Katherine got wet and flooded the world that side. That inland low is not a threat unless something feeds it moisture and that could be the out come of a cyclone coming down Kal way as tropical low then and a trough pushed south feeding cold wet moist air back to the north via inland NT, then they will see huge rain falls on the west side of NT again.
one thing we as westerners don't know, but local folk who lived here for 1000's of years do tell of, is the wet in the middle. A time when rain washed the desert to mud and inland seas stretched further than the ye could see. Now when this last occured is a biug fight in climate and geological circles. Some say the last time was 10~12,000 years ago, which puts it outside the present climate cycle model we live in..HOWEVER.. there is a school of though that says in the 1400 to 1600 it may have occured a few times, and this also lead to some explorers of the time being blown off course from Africa to the Indies. It would explain why some explorers got lost and ended up much further south that they should have been on winds of the day and means we could see that happen again some time. What kind of rain are we talking about, not a Noah event, but like 100~150mm in less than 24 hrs over a few thousand square kilometers in the centre of NT to WA, very flat land and no where to pool run off water....
Cyclone Yasi made it all the way to make Alice Springs wet, a few events like that from the west as well could change the climate of the inland for a long time, as once a green house up welling of water vapour starts inland, then rains follow. Some good models out there in climate circles showing Australia could end up a very wet in some climate change situations.
http://www.outback-australia-travel-secrets.com/australian-desert.html
http://www.sciencealert.com.au/news/20092001-18694-5.html
two little reads for you
No sorry no barra in the Swan in any I know of...lol
Tony Halliday: ~Meals on Reels ~
It takes a strong fish to swim against the current. Even a dead one can float with it
"It is always in season for old men to learn." Aeschylus (525-456 BC)
"In a mad world only the mad are sane." Akira Kurosawa (1910-1998)
Bodie
Posts: 3758
Date Joined: 05/11/07
Here we go track is up. Could
Here we go track is up. Could be a ripper of a storm
http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDW60280.gif?1298620449916
crasny1
Posts: 7028
Date Joined: 16/10/08
Ill stick with between Hedland and here
Xing as Cat 2-3. Will watch where it goes, but Errol (Flynn) F^$#D everything in site, so I wont be happy with that name.
Neels
"I would like to die on Mars. Just not on impact!!" _ Elon Musk
crasny1
Posts: 7028
Date Joined: 16/10/08
Latest BOM and woodside says between here and Hedland
Wednesday as CAT 2 (at least) with pridicted CP 0f 975hP.
Neels
"I would like to die on Mars. Just not on impact!!" _ Elon Musk
Tony Halliday
Posts: 2500
Date Joined: 14/06/07
now the bugger is heading
now the bugger is heading straight for me here at Nullagine!!!
after tha turn south early yesterday, it is staying over land for the next few days by the looks.
we expecting it to either stay a strong tropical low or a very weak Cat 1 maybe???
But a lot of water will be dropped, as it's slow and not going anywhere fast.
mmm may just need to get a ticket out tonight, as bugger all I can do in the mud and rain...
Tony Halliday: ~Meals on Reels ~
It takes a strong fish to swim against the current. Even a dead one can float with it
"It is always in season for old men to learn." Aeschylus (525-456 BC)
"In a mad world only the mad are sane." Akira Kurosawa (1910-1998)
Bodie
Posts: 3758
Date Joined: 05/11/07
yep looking like coming
yep looking like coming through as a strong low, with expected large volume of water dropped. However looking at it on the radar now, its not showing too much water?
I'd say it will head back out to see somewhere between Ktown and exmouth and probably reform into a cyclone
Tony Halliday
Posts: 2500
Date Joined: 14/06/07
who knows on this one, it's
who knows on this one, it's on it's own mission and ignoring the basic trends..lol, hung around over Darwin and gave it a double pass, then zigg zagged it's way around the islands on a sight seeing tour, to then duck down the Sound to say hi to Derby, now it's on Walkabout...lol
not sure how the roads are going to hold out, with many unsealed roads still water logged and dam from the last big falls, this could just make the areas totally unpassable for weeks if it rains more than 200mm in areas here. We got standing water every where on the plains. Predictions are 400mm just north of us, we could not handle that right now
Tony Halliday: ~Meals on Reels ~
It takes a strong fish to swim against the current. Even a dead one can float with it
"It is always in season for old men to learn." Aeschylus (525-456 BC)
"In a mad world only the mad are sane." Akira Kurosawa (1910-1998)
Tony Halliday
Posts: 2500
Date Joined: 14/06/07
Now that bugger has cruised
Now that bugger has cruised over the Pilbara inland as a low dropping rain all the way,
BUT at 996mbar is still tropical low and heading to Coral Bay, and back over the water.
Willit reform as a Cat1 in the warmer condtions off the coast...
YEP I think so, then what??? who knows I hae given up on this one...
Tony Halliday: ~Meals on Reels ~
It takes a strong fish to swim against the current. Even a dead one can float with it
"It is always in season for old men to learn." Aeschylus (525-456 BC)
"In a mad world only the mad are sane." Akira Kurosawa (1910-1998)
crasny1
Posts: 7028
Date Joined: 16/10/08
This one has acted drunk
and confused. Lulling around not doing much.
Still think it has ammo left somewehere, but not much.
Neels
PS Did you go home with the last one Tony or did they fly you up that day?
"I would like to die on Mars. Just not on impact!!" _ Elon Musk
Tony Halliday
Posts: 2500
Date Joined: 14/06/07
Yes we got on Last Tuesdays
Yes we got on Last Tuesdays 2pm flight, after the 6am one was turned around due to weather conditions up there ( could not land).
We got lucky with a hole in the cloud and rain and got it later in the day.
My fly out day was monday, so was a normal fly out for me.
But they did delay people from flying up with the weather closing in today.
The amount of standing water in the plains and in salt pans is absolutley huge, I have never seen the Pilbara this green before and things growing like there is no tomorrow!!!
Hello tropical australia....lol
Tony Halliday: ~Meals on Reels ~
It takes a strong fish to swim against the current. Even a dead one can float with it
"It is always in season for old men to learn." Aeschylus (525-456 BC)
"In a mad world only the mad are sane." Akira Kurosawa (1910-1998)
crasny1
Posts: 7028
Date Joined: 16/10/08
You are not wrong!!!!
Will be a ripper of a wild flower season. Now I am just waiting for the plague of little green grasshoppers that normally comes with the rain.
"I would like to die on Mars. Just not on impact!!" _ Elon Musk
Tony Halliday
Posts: 2500
Date Joined: 14/06/07
anf FLIES... dam they where
anf FLIES...
dam they where bad, nex thte flying ants wil be out.
We got loads of little grass hoppers around the camp already...
time to make "protien bars" for the tourists....lol
Tony Halliday: ~Meals on Reels ~
It takes a strong fish to swim against the current. Even a dead one can float with it
"It is always in season for old men to learn." Aeschylus (525-456 BC)
"In a mad world only the mad are sane." Akira Kurosawa (1910-1998)
crasny1
Posts: 7028
Date Joined: 16/10/08
Flying ants came and went, within a day!!
Should have seen the Morbidly obese geckos.
Neels
"I would like to die on Mars. Just not on impact!!" _ Elon Musk
jay_burgess
Posts: 4648
Date Joined: 18/08/05
86.8mm for Telfer in the
86.8mm for Telfer in the 24hrs to 9am this morning.